Ha ha. Different Pav's, Nameslittle. I'm certainly not hot, so that's why I don't have hot in my handle.
Hotkiwipav, I encourage everyone to read almost everything on graphite, and it's inevitable that the various writers will have different views. My personal view, as a glass half full guy, is that the future demand is going to be phenomenal. Not because of graphene, but because of batteries and power storage. Initially, that drive will come from the EV takeup, but I see even that longer term being overtaken by other storage, namely grid storage and personal storage. The metrics are too compelling not to have this happen. Right now, power grids in the developed world are designed with peak power as their goal (i.e. they have to have enough capacity from all sources running to be able to meet peak demand indefinitely). The problem with that is that you have a shitload of idle capacity for the vast majority of the time, but which we still have to pay for in our gold plated electricity bills. As soon as there is viable grid storage, what do you think a developed economy like Australia, or a growing economy like China or India, is going to do when they have increased demand from a bigger economy or a bigger population? At the moment, the solution is to bung up another coal fired power station, but the writing is on the wall. No matter that Abbot's Oz is going to drag the chain on climate change, the coming tide is inevitable. And once the research/technology catches up, many nations will find that if they have enough baseload power for normal economic demand, then it will start being cheaper to put in grid storage to draw down from in peak demand, rather than build a whole new power station. In a way, it's what the hydro scheme does in the Snowies. Pump water up to the top dams using cheap power in off-peak times, and then let that water run down to put power back into the grid during peak times when all the Sydneysiders come home and switch their a/c units on.
BUT, there is also this little guy inside me that is occasionally glass half empty. And he's very concerned about risk, and occasionally wonders whether a new house or cash in the bank is better than money in a graphite company, particularly when he's playing with very large sums, and he's also worried that other people might be listening to him and amending their investment decisions accordingly, so he wants to make sure that his recommendation is sound, and that it's a good investment based on the here and now, and not the blue sky.
So how do I reconcile all that? Quite easily, to be honest.
First, I assume that comments like Jon Hykawy's statements are correct. In fact, I assume that even worse predictions come to pass. In other words, there is no EV, there is no graphene, there is no exponential growth, just global growth based on increases mirroring the increases in global GDP. Can this company survive on current/base demand? One off-take in the bag, and another on the way, indicates a resounding yes.
Then, I hope that comments like Peter Epstein are correct. If I am wrong on my hope, but I am right on my base demand, then I will still make a lot of money.
I could have summarised all that much more easily by saying "plan for the worst, hope for the best", but then I wouldn't have gotten to type by a campfire in the Oz bush. Old meets new. What an interesting world.
I will add, that even though I did say "plan for the worst, hope for the best" my strong belief is that long term demand will surprise most people, for a whole host of reasons. But that demand is going to be for quality, not quantity. Graphite is plentiful. Just about every continent/country has it in some form. But quality graphite is harder to find. Invest in quality, and no matter what happens to everyone else, you'll still have made a sound investment.
PS I don't care if you do not hold, as questions from non-holders can be just as important (or even more so) than those from holders who can't take their blinkers off. A lot of these posts (on all threads, not just KNL) end up preaching to the converted, so it's good to see them in use with the "undecided"
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