Duster or Gusher.. A Case study

Ok, Im new to O&G investing gambling... Yeah, High Risk... I get it.

I am about to go into my first O&G find. (FAR) for those who are interested. Im sure most of you know whats going on, but basically 900mmbbl potential offshore senegal, west africa.

I hear a lot about HC members remembering dusters such as "Shell" & "Koro/Kora ?" where it appeared a sure fire thing, yet, there was disappointment.

I have also come across this article...
http://www.idiottax.net/2014/01/investors-say-darndest-things_13.html#.VC_GXUv6ezA
... which pokes fun at investors gamblers being cock sure about their impending gusher.

Nb. The article omits the company name, but I traced it back to NEN.

I don't want to learn the hard way, I want to be best informed as I can...
So my question to HC members who are willing to share.

Have you been through a duster/gusher? What are the events which lead up to it? Are their any tell tale warning signs? Would you advise against holding a position in a company while taking a step through the wall of fire?

Some articles/people suggest their is almost always a leak, and a dropping SP is indicative of a duster. Your thoughts?

Thanks in advance,

R2R