" but there is no substitute for good data and a thorough understanding of the issues that might affect the eventual outcome."
Agreed raiderup so let's look at the data:
During the first five months for 2014 China exported 11,597 tons of flake graphite in May 2014, representing a 17.99 % year to year increase (it was 9,829 tons in 2013), valued at US$ 10.42 million. In the first five months of this year the total of export volume of flake graphite in China was 52,137 tons, or a 14.45% year to year increase. The total value of exports of flake graphite increased 11.35% year to year for a value of US$ 44.87 million in the period.
So no sign of China easing off its graphite exports, in fact it's doing the opposite. Let's look at the demand side now:
Japan’s imports of flake graphite from China increased 54.57% year over year to 8,942 tons. The USA imported 8,362 tons of flake graphite from China (+35.41% compared with the same period in 2013). Germany imported 5,814 tons of flake graphite (+36.22% year to year). South Korea’s imports from China also rose, reaching 4228 tons (+18%) over the same period in 2013.
So demand is increasing but China is responding by exporting more and note that the tonnage is quite small. There is a lot of talk about the size of the graphite pie increasing exponentially but we are yet to see it, and the competition from emerging producers to provide more graphite (if China doesn't) is growing.
