ousia's update: half year results, page-7

Some replies to my critics:

Kincella: The Talyor Collison report on BTA’s website was written just before GSK released its 15mill figure, so the report's numbers are out of date. My guess is that the analyst will revise down his valuation in light of the half year results and GSK production capacity.

Godiesel: If you add up all of the Relenza orders to date (both confirmed and unconfirmed) you get a figure of around 18mill packs – with 9mill of this going to France alone (where most of the world's Relenza is produced). On this basis, I think 20-25mill packs is a realistic estimate of global demand for the drug in CY06.

Miso: There have already been some Tamiflu-resistant strains of H5N1 isolated. Because the Tamiflu-resistant strains are not the wild strains, and because most are likely the result of inadequate dosages given to some patients to date, this is considered an acceptable risk by govt authorities. Tamiflu’s key advantage is that it is a systemic treatment and H5N1 is considered by most experts to be a systemic disease. Relenza’s perceived problem (in addition to its method of delivery) is its poor tissue penetrability, and is thus not a suitable treatment for a systemic disease. This is the key reason why Relenza demand is where it is at present. Relenza has yet to be tested in the field, and, as I have repeatedly said, future demand for the drug will be influenced to a large extent by how the drug performs in the field.