PSA 0.00% 2.1¢ petsec energy limited

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  1. 3,353 Posts.
    Like, that is simply the most incredible news. I will step forward for some maths:

    - Feb net cashflow (after deducting 50 cents per unit for costs as advised by PSA) = A$6.5M
    - Mar net cashflow at higher prices, guess = A$8M
    - Assume $5 gross per mcf to end of year, then Apr to Dec cashflow = A$4.8M x 9 = A$43M

    A$43M + 6.5M + 8M = A$57.5M EBITDA. (Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depn, Amortisation).

    Let me have a stab at these figures.

    Interest we will assume as NIL.
    Tax, let's assume 33% tax rate (at a guess) = $19M.
    Depn, I am not sure, pick a figure, say $2M.
    Amortisation, not easy, over 3 yr life of field = $5M.
    1 yr of admin costs = 3.2M (was $1.6 in previous half year)

    Rough stab at P+L =

    Net revenue after prod costs = 57.5
    Int, tax, depn, amort, admin = (29.5)
    Net Profit/Earnings = A$28M

    Market cap = 105M x 35 cents = A$37M
    PE = 37/28 = 1.3 (incredible)

    Boy, was that the news we have been waiting for or what. Please bear in mind my calcs are very crude.

    And imagine if they put together 2-3 years of that cash flow, or blow me down, find even some smallish gas discoveries in close nearby wells, like how can you not buy any of these.

    Watch the price fly Friday morning.
 
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