Respected analists? You mean the ones with financial interests in pet projects?
They are actually some very well regarded freethinkers like Gareth Hatch & Jon Hykawy, let alone large scale end user commentary, with a very different opinion.
Couple of recent ones from Hykawy:
"To me, the critical rare earths are the magnet materials, not yttrium. If anyone cared about yttrium, it wouldn’t sell at the low price that it does. There must be a sufficient output, not in percentages but in tonnes, of neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium. Yes, I do believe that dysprosium use as a percentage of magnet mass will decrease, but dysprosium use won’t decline to zero, it is always going to be cheap insurance against demagnetization."
http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/rare-earth-market-evolves/#sthash.0XEWleMB.dpuf
"....latest development in phosphor-coated carrier particles, so the amount of phosphor needed for efficient lighting has now dropped dramatically, and will continue to drop further as LED replaces fluorescent and incandescent."
http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/lighting-way-rare-earths-lighting/#sthash.dLP2MHhV.dpuf
If you manage to get past the light weight & self interested spruikers you'll find far more commentary with a similar view, Kingsnorth for example is forecasting Dy demand growth of only 850t to 1000t by 2020, as against a compound growth in NdPr circa 20%.
Magnetics segment at Roskill's next month SB an interesting update on the current state of play:
Session 4: Focus on magnets:09:00 – 09:25 “Materials for magnets in wind turbines”, by Alexander Pulkert, Energy Sector, Wind Power Division, Siemens AG, Germany;09:25 – 09:55 “Challenges and opportunities for the bonded NdFeB industry”, by Khan Liu, General Manager, Integrated Magnetics Ltd, China;
http://www.metalevents.com/events/10th-international-rare-earths-conference#Programme
HRE mantra is getting very tired, expect Roskill's will provide further confirmation.
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