Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

TSN

Click for more information

0.00%

1.0¢ the sustainable nutrition group ltd

Something funny happened ....., page-17

First 17 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
ViperX1

483 Posts.

60

26/10/14

21:27

Post #: 14183773
Share

Originally posted by madonion87 ↑

I think it's also worth noting that the primary end point is assessed on the 350th event (350/415, or 16th percentile), thereby avoiding the extremely long tail

This is what you need to do if you don't want to wait forever for the last guy who happens to live for years (good for him, but bad for shareholders). If you look at the VELOUR trial, the 15th percentile had ~12 months PFS for the control arm. If you look at the original trial timeline, finishing by Q3 2013 would mean they were expecting the 350th event to happen at ~9-12 months (somewhat consistent with the VELOUR trial). The fact that they had to delay the results by 12 months would mean one of the arms had the 15th percentile all the way at the 24 months mark.

Remember, it's perfectly fine to cut the tail because it won't affect your median

Expand

Madonion - Your assumption i.e. 350 events being the 84th percentile assumes zero dropouts. At 10% dropouts, the 350th event is much further into the tail. This is my principal concern about reading success from trial duration.

ACL Price at posting: 62.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Is the ASX getting its groove back? Here's 5 IPOs in September to watch

FEG

China's Xingye snags 19.99% stake in Far East Gold, eyeing latter's Indonesian gold play

ADH

Adairs MD and CEO steps down after 17 years in company management

DEL

Delorean unlocks $30M through Tanarra finance facility for bioenergy projects

SRN

Copper and zinc zone prove exciting news for Surefire close to WA's Yidby

There are more pages in this discussion • 4 more messages in this thread...

First 17 Last

Add TSN (ASX) to my watchlist