CPDLC,
I just can't get your numbers, nor for that matter does the company's numbers add up to profitability.
" annualised forward EPS for FY15 is already at US 22c (ie +46%)."
Sorry I just dont get that after going through the last 11 quarterlies and last 10 years financials. Reasons being, in the quarter just gone, all the extras should be included in AISC, bringing it to $1238. Exploration expenditure, lowest for 10 quarters, capworks in lowest quartile of last 10 quarters, mine development sustaining costs pretty much there abouts every quarter, so the $9.5m stays in full. Corporate at $2.4 low.
Cash costs are $150/oz higher than several years ago due to lower grade, more ore moved.
In 8 of the last 10 years, cap costs per share have been greater than cashflow/share. A lot of those costs should be in AISC instead.
D&A over the last 10 years don't come close to the Cap spend, even with allowing a lag.
4 cap raisings in last 10 years only thing keeping this going.
In 10 years cap spend = $446.5m.
D&A = $68.9m in same period.
shareholder equity $437.7m
net earnings over period $357.4m
Divs $42.9m
Cap raised =~$100m plus some extras from exercise of options and some payments I missed.
In 10 years the cap spend is $446m
yet the equity of SH is $437.7m and only $42.9 m paid in divs.
They are not making money, it is an expensive operation with cash costs growing due to low grade, and constant cap spending that should be put in sustaining costs but is capitalised instead, giving false picture of profitability.
Share market woke up to this and has marked it down accordingly. They effectively made $740k for quarter, after slashing costs, some of which will have to go up in future for business to continue. Low POG and grade hurting company along with thin veins.
A cap raise is a distinct possibility if POG stays low and production falls at all.
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Ann: Quarterly Activities Report September 2014, page-18
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