Analysing the WL logging data is fairly straight-fwd & that's where the extra 'net pay' will come frm.
Fan-1 was Conoco's well so they'll keep it tight until all data is collated. So keep an eye on their upcoming conf calls. I just hope there's a smart backside analyst asking about this discovery & its overall impact. Due to the competition in the area, they wont give away much in my view. SNE-1 is Cairn's well (the first farmout).
Good to see 'additional oil bearing sands' mentioned in the qtrly. They r not giving too much away, other then the odd wink-wink, nudge-nudge in the updates & that's bloody killing me since I know what info to look at straight-away.
The first pass frm logging is to select the obvious intervals that have a decent sandy section, with oil shows, porosity, so that's where the 29m is coming from.
The second pass is frm the interpretation in the office. Obviously thinner sands get overlooked, but if they r porous, with shows then they r added to the overall tally.
The common logs used for the interp r the gamma (where they apply the sand & shale volume cut-offs,),
resistivity (straight-fwd for HC bearing zone compared to water), porosity (picked frm density-neutron logs). Add to that the MDT data, ie pressure frm the zone where they sampled the fluids (29-41 API), took sidewall cores & the story starts to emerge. MDT's r referred to as mini-DST's.
Most operators take a while to suss out the oil-leg frm the pressure gradient, esp when there r multiple zones. Luckily they haven't found the Oil water contact (apparent frm the resistivity logs & MDT data).
So what does all of the above mean, simply put add in another 10-30% more to the overall 'net'.
The gross remains the same, ie point where they encountered the Cretaceous formation tops & had the first oil shows upto the OWC which hasn't been intersected, hence the thicker gross column (eg 4427-4927m is their 500m gross +/- a few metres).
The last part is the recovery factor (%).
From the SWC analysis in the lab, they do the helium injection etc to calc the poro/perm's of the individual reservoir to put together all the pieces of the data. This is reqd for making the final call on 'Commercial' discovery as the recfac is multiplied with the OIIP to give an estimate of the recoverable reserves.
I think FAN-1 is a good discovery & Conoco should do a follow-up well to appraise it or another fan in the middle canyon. So something along the lines of 35m total net pay with avg poro of 16-20% & perm of 200+ millidarcies should b fine. We already know the oil API, just need proof of where its coming from.
All eyes on SNE-1, once they drill towards the Albian Clastics (2600m depth apprx).
On the rig they'll b monitoring the gamma & resistvty data on the LWD/MWD logs (all in realtime) & any HC shows circulated up from the drillmud & cuttings. But they wont release more details, thanks to the tight hole policy.
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