Analysing alternatives, page-11

Fly

One of the alternatives has to be letting go of some ACL and putting the money elsewhere. I know that people say 'It's not a loss until you sell', but the wheels of biotech turn very slowly and can tie your money up for years and years. There's also no guarantee that a recovery will ever eventuate. Although things didn't pan out, there are some excellent staff at ACL and who's to say that they will stick around. Nothing is certain.

Even if they nail down the reason for this failure it would be extraordinary for it to have much of an effect on the SP, certainly far less than the 300 - 400% needed for most people to see a profit (guessing here). So in the near future it's the Reddy's boys or SCLC interim and either could deliver a kicking as easily as a boost.

The trial was spread over time and geography, it could be that finding the answers will be very difficult and that the reason ends up prefaced with 'We suspect that'.

For some ACL investors, maybe a good idea is to release a few shares and grab some Neuren (NEU). Before I continue, RISKY RISKY RISKY RISKY. NEU is brain biochem and that is damn tricky; it also carries increased placebo issues when trying to evaluate behavior - is the drug doing its work or is the patient just extra happy and determined because they're on the trial? I only mention NEU because its pivotal trial has results due in November and its SP is less than ACL current. NEU also has a string of results due over the next year or so and with a lot of luck could turn a little into a lot. I DO NOT ADVOCATE investing in NEU unless you're prepared to take another kicking. Brain stuff is tricky and I regard it as high risk. Don't spend a lot don't lose a lot. Some people say 'No guts no glory', but countless people have come to grief in all sorts of endeavors while charging in heroically.

I'm sure that most of you know about NEU already, but for the few that haven't I've mentioned it because this thread is titled Analysing Alternatives. It's worth noting that NEU has been drifting lower even with results just around the corner, so maybe the smart money is elsewhere. This post comes with a health warning.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH - this is a discussion and not a recommendation.

Cheers - a hopeful pessimist