Crazy Fluff's Tips for the Melbourne Cup, page-26

Tip: Admire Ratki
Odds: $4.80
Summary: The Melbourne Cup is here. After hours and hours of study we have come up with our tip and a summary on those we think can go close in the race that stops a nation.

What we have looked hard at is the international form vs our own horses form. Who will run out a strong 3200m and have that turn of foot/burst of speed to finish off the race and run away from the rest of the field like Fiorente did last year. We looked at the weights the horses will carry compared to what they normally would carry to see if there is an advantage in the race. Also barriers, weather, potential racing pattern/speed map, and especially previous race times and class of those races. Here is what we have found following our study:

Winners at the weights from last run:
Willing Foe drops 7kg
Royal Diamond drops 6.5kg
My Ambivalent drops 6.5kg
Mr O'Cerin drops 5.5kg
Signoff drops 5.5kg +1kg for jockey
Brambles drops 5kg
Mutual Regard drops 4kg
Gatewood drops 3.5kg
Protectionist 2.5kg
Fawkner drops 2kg
Admire Rakti only penalised .5kg (58.5kg)

Distance Concerns:
Sea Moon
Junoob
Gatewood
My Ambivalent
Brambles
Mr O'Cerin
Au Revoir
Lidari

Key Form for Us:
1. Admire Rakti - run in the Caulfield Cup was huge, escaped the handicappers with only .5kg penalty. Has won over 3400m before, powerful at the finish in Caulfield Cup. Great lead up run for this.

2. Mutual Regard - Won the Group 1 Ebor last start by 1.3L over 2800m. It last five runs have netted 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a third, all around the 2800-3600m distance.

3. Signoff - Was being prepared for a while to get to the Lexus, win that and then go into the Melb Cup without a penalty, achieved this and gets in with 51kg. Its win in the Lexus was very solid and should be peaked for the Cup ride.

4. Cavalryman - very strong beating European superstars Hillstar and Ahzeemah in Group 2 races over 2400m and 3200m in July. Its last start was 4th in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over 3300m. Distance is no trouble for this horse and is always close to winning in all it races. Record over this distance is 6 starts - 2 wins and 2 seconds.

5. Fawkner - Has only had 3 runs this prep and all have been awesome! Should be at fitness peak for this. Its tough 0.2L second in the Cox Plate and strong win in the Caulfield Stakes look like a horse whose ready to go very close in this.

Final Words: We think you need to be somewhere midfield and up coming up to the 800m mark in this race. At this stage the jockeys are ready to start urging there horses on and by the 400m mark you really need to be in a great position and we think have that powerful burst of speed at the end of a 3200m race to kick clear of your rivals!! If your towards the back at this stage and you do make some good ground your only gonna finish no better than midfield.

It will all be set up at the start of the race so barriers are crucial. You dont want to be stuck on the fence and shuffled back towards the end of the race unable to get out, but you also dont want to be to far back snd wide that you cover too much ground.

This is why we think Admire Rakti can win the Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup double.

1. Barrier 8 allows him to not get caught on the fence and should be able to find cover easily midfield somewhere without using any petrol.

2. Has that burst of speed that we seen in the Caulfield Cup to kick clear of its rivals on the finish and should be within striking distance given its good barrier and settling position. We seen this horse win at Caulfield coming from the back, very wide and on a shorter straight. Imagine it in a good position, closer to the speed at Flemington!!

3. Distance will be no issue and the stable have always said it would be better suited at 3200m. After what we seen in the Caulfield Cup any improvement on that.. Gee, give this horse the trophy now.

4. Weight has only gone up .5kg from its Caulfield Cup run and yes, it is carrying top weight of 58.5kg compared to signoff who should run with 52kg but in the Caulfield Cup. Rakti had to carry 58kg against horses like Lucia Valentina who had 53kg and was comfortable at that distance, Lidari who carried 53.5, Brambles 53.5kg and Admire Rakti still ate them up and flew past them like the others had weights on there legs..

Final Selections in order are:

No 1: Admire Rakti
No 11: Mutual Regard
No 24 Signoff
No 2 Cavalryman
No 3 Fawkner