A large part of the market is uneducated and does not understand how proving up these plays work. It is less hit and miss with a NOVA but more steadily working the tenement forward. MPJ and PLD, both great explorers with serious guns behind them (Newexeco also behind MPJ) have a plan and work towards it. Yes, you can get lucky on a first strike but in planning that is a "great surprise" rather than the golden eye.
So, we get overbought sometimes on run ups and then oversold on retracements. Just pick where you think we are and trade accordingly.
The big green blob, page-15
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