Now next Tue is the D Day. Before that we need to jump few hoops
1. Tomorrow 12 PM Sydney Time Instos offer is closed. Hopefully we might hear something on Fri about the demand or possible clawbacks scale backs etc.
2. I Can't see the Feds screwing up everyone by releasing all the details on Tue before open which makes so many voters angry. So we can expect some news on Fri and weekend and hopefully all the news on Clawbacks Scalebacks Allocations and Final price by Mon avo.
3. It is obvious the Final price will be either $2.10 or $2.15 as Fundees are saying the bidding is out of control to get allocations.
4. It can go 3 ways now I believe. (A) Either the Feds become crazy and Clawback 20% from us the Broker Firm guys and give that to the Voters the Mom and Dads which means we get $1.2 Bil and Mom and dads get 3 Bil and the Instos balls would be squeezed so hard they would only get $1.8 bill so a total of $6 bill say around $2.15 that is a ratio of 70% retail and 30% instos. (B) No Clawbacks for Broker Firm and $2.5 Bil for retail and $2 bill for instos that is a ratio of 66.6 % retail and 33.3% Instos. (C) say 10% clawback from us so $1.35 Bil for us and $2.25 Bil for retail and $2.4 bill for Instos that is a ratio of 60% retail and 40% instos.
I somehow reckon the Option (C) is more likely for political gains from various angles.
5. The most important thing the Final Price of $2.15, I read today in Murdoch's Press as well as in Fairfax Media that MPL some how now won't be compared to NIB anymore and would be compared to HSO and RHC. It is obvious that in their mad rush for allocations Fundees are thinking like that. say a at possible PE of 26 and with improved efficiency and cost cutting the Projected 2015 NPAT would be significantly higher than in the prospectus. And if you apply a PE of 26 to that improved NPAT for 2015 I was told by a JLM Corporate off the record that Fundees from US and Asia in Particular think a value of up to $2.70 is even OK. From where we stand right now it looks fairyland arena isn't it. But my contact told me strange things happen when people( Instos ) lose their rational thinking and in their mad rush to get a decent amount on open anything can happen now. As was said in the media today MPL is the Hottest Ticket in Town. Insto bidding is beyond crazy and insane. come Tue who am I to judge them if they go crazy and pay any price they want for MPL. All bets are off is the official word from th top end of Town this avo.
