mm - firstly - as someone who has run several cap raises for stocks - let me just clarify - every cap raise ive ever done has been 'oversubscribed'. Its actually impossible not to be oversubscribed unless you are a moron
when an insto bookbuild is done the rough value is already known by those of us who do this stuff for a living.
then the funds are asked to place bids at different price points - not suprisingly they put in hefty bids for lower prices and seek low share allocations for higher prices.
as a result you tend to get say 1.3x coverage (ie 30% oversubcribed) at fair market value, 1.2 x coverage at 5% above fair value and so on.
its then up to the board of the company which price they agree to do the insto component at.
the lower the price the more assured they are that other funds will buy it on market once the deal is done and the stock is back on market.
only retail ignoramusses are persuaded by the spin
your inferences do not hold water and suggest you do not actually have any real world experience to use in your interpretations
i would caution you against making assumptions about fund motives unless you have had direct experience with them
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