Filling the Gap @ 20c, page-84

Speaking of fools, heres my history from 80c down, the last post seems to have come true??

Should listen to Warnie.



I hear HB pencils might be back in Vogue at some point.
That should be useful for this low grade fluff.

TON (ASX)
Price at posting:
65.0¢

All in good fun James.

I’m just a good rabbit dressed in a flame throwing sarong.

Just continuing my efforts from last Friday (see $2 and beyond thread) when the SP was 85c plus, when I promised to come back each Friday for a chalkboard update knowing this low junk was overpriced.

Please don't take it personally fella, I hate everyone equally.


TON (ASX)

Price at posting:
65.0¢

Thanks ozy for response, as for following the King for guidance, as he bought again at 85c, I'll probably give that a miss, but thanks for your response as to how close proximity can be a bonus.

TON (ASX)

Price at posting:
53.0¢


Its a decent point you make.

So let's use fundamentals here to understand where its at.

A few drill holes yes, no JORC, an assumed possible resource size so far 3/4 the size of olympic dam which they will need to dug out at up 400m vertical depth or 12 billion tonnes of dirt to get to the higher grade veins which appears to be at depth , low cash balance circa $8m, just 6% of market cap is cash, market cap of $120m, so valuation of around $110m on the resource so far, no income for possibly 3 years assuming all goes well, capital raising will be required at some point, no current infrastructure (will need $150 m possibly more to start production) , no BFS, no feasibility, no approvals, no high grades of note other than veins the size of my left cruciate, no flake sizes provided, no offtake agreements, no MOU, etc etc.

However, not all bad, on a positive note, I'm intending to set up a shovel and spade tooling and sharpening service somewhere around the front gates, includes free wheelbarrow for the week with every product hired , bound to be a booming trade I'd say.

Ok ok, just winding you up, its all good, market will work out the true value in the end, good or bad, so PPPPP is right.

Warnie.

TON (ASX)

Price at posting:
36.5¢



\Think i'll have the contrarian view to most here just to keep you pilferers honest.

I think i've heard it all, Tesla offtake, high grade, largest resource ever evr evr evr, production within short period, the list goes on.

Here's two more for you...make sure you have tight stops and loose lips sink ships.

TON (ASX)

Price at posting:
31.5¢

1. Hi Meteor
   
   Bit of a rushed response...........
   
   Without knowing for sure as it is a very open ended question, I would say a lot of the SYR share price has to do with extremely good timing, marketing to instos and their clients (decent backing early doors) , and something we all need, an ounce of luck, all thrown in.
   
   Just as one can argue the reasons why they may think TON is overvalued, same can be said for SYR, if not more so imo.
   
   With a mining licence in toe, first to reach that milestone, 2 x large MOU's from reasonably large players, large insto investment, cash in hand, this takes a) some of the risk out of the stock and b) provides the impetus required to get a good rising SP.
   
   TON are further behind, hence the SP drag.
   
   There are other factors, and I personally think a MOU isn't worth anything and should be discounted from the SP.
   
   For this reason I think SYR is extremely overpriced at this point and should be around the 1.5 times the market cap of TON at present.
   
   However, the market has already imo added to the SP the fact of the less risk, mining licence and MOU's, cash, which yes, derisk the stock to an extent.
   
   SYR SP has come off quite considerably, which proves the point is essence that the stock is overvalued, or was, but the market does overshoot and over corrects at times.
   
   I think SYR should be in the $1.30 - $1.50 range and TON in the 15- 20c range.
   
   This would be market caps of say $200m for SYR and $60m for TON.
   
   To me that is about fair value for each, when you consider where each is at and the inherent risk factors applied based on their current status.
   
   SP around this range would also then allow for a great uplift as new boxes are ticked.
   
   For example, if TON were to come out with an actual offtake agreement, of size, then the gap between each stock would decrease considerable imo, if using my figures.
   
   To me they are both overvalued at present, more so SYR imo, however the market prefers less risk, and apportions a higher market cap to that stock for that very reason, and other reasons mentioned above.
   
   Things can and will change.
   
   TON's management seems to be doing what they can to tick the boxes, and thats all you can do, the SP will take care of itself, management never set share prices, the market does, and for good reason.
   
   Forget the difference between the two, working out what is fair value is more important.
   
   cheers.
   
   
   
   .
   
   
   
   TON (ASX)

Price at posting:
31.0¢