Some thoughts...., page-15

My thought is that there is no manipulation occurring. Even in the current environment, I think the market can identify value and if it was identified in FAR its unlikely we would have found ourselves discussing a sub 8c share price post FAN and SNE.

One thing that certainly has been identified is that the oil market has collapsed and there is no intention by OPEC and the other 4 to address supply for 12 months. Not only has it changed the markets tolerance for risk but so to must it have changed the JV partners tolerance and a modest approach may be what 2015 has in store for the JV.

I think what the market may have concluded is that it is possible that the 2015 appraisal program discussions will centre around SNE-1 only. So it is potentially unlikely that we will see billions of barrels being proved up next year. Instead we may prove up 500 million barrels of reserves at SNE-1 and then progress towards development.

Baby steps. The Senegalese government are an unknown quantity (oil changes relationships), as is the acreage (no history of production), as is the future of the oil price (demand), so investing 100's of millions of $ to prove up resources that you are unlikely to want to supply to the current market seems a waste of $. So a more modest program to prove up SNE-1 and progress it to production will give the JV partners and the Senegalese government an opportunity court each other before a larger exploration and development budget are approved and agreements/contracts are entered into re FAN-1 and the other prospects.. Senegal benefits from a fast tracked development of SNE-1.

So maybe the market isn't seeing what many here had hoped to see in 2015 (billions of barrels). Rather it's going to be a bit more 'boring'. More capital required and maybe a restructure???