Linc,
The 1-2 year low oil price call is more based on what almost every oil analyst is forecasting.
Morgan Stanley have stated they think oil could drop to as low as $43.
It is however always possible in 6 months time Oil prices could bounce but with China, USA and Europe now really pushing ahead with Alternative energy such as Solar, Wind and various other stuff plus you have the China economy slowing I can't see POO climbing back to the $80 - $110 range any time soon.
You also have a lot more electric cars coming onto the market now which will reduce oil demand.
New Shale fracking technology changed the game and we went from a peak oil problem two years ago to a surplus oil problem today.
I have been investing in oil and gas companies for about 25 years and I have not seen it this bad for quite a few years. POO has been a lot lower in previous years but back in those days drilling costs were also a lot cheaper as they were drilling the easy to get stuff and labor costs were way lower too.
Linc has made a start reducing costs by reducing staff by about 50 but with over 400 staff on their books I would of thought a 200 - 250 reduction would be more appropriate.
Might also be a good idea to cancel the Cricket Sponsorship too.
At the end of the day I first invested in this company because of UCG and even though I no longer am willing to risk investing in the company I would still like to see a full UCG operation get up and running just to see if they can finally achieve what for many years they have been claiming is commercially viable.
I can't see them being able to sell any assets at anywhere near market price in this market so it would make sense to put them all on care and maintenance until the market recovers.
Cash preservation is whats needed.
LNC Price at posting:
99.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
