KISS Principle, page-42

Buddy, it's you who is making stuff up. In fact your post is full of inaccurate information and should be modded IMO, especially considering you assert these are "Facts mate. Facts!!!"

The AUD has not been above USD1.00 since early 2013. CTP was not even awarded its PL til Feb 2014 and did not start production until April/May. Since that time the AUD has been in the low 90s. So if you want to persist in this analogy, at $100/bbl oil and 92c, CTP was getting $109/bbl (in fact it's more because they get Tapis, but for comparison's sake it's easier to use WTI). For you to be saying the AUD was $1.10 is just plain wrong - the AUD was never even at $1.10 except for a couple of brief spikes that lasted a day or two - and that was in 2011!

Now at $60/bbl and 83c, it is $72/bbl. That is a 35% drop, and a drop of $37/bbl. You can add about $15 to the price of both for Tapis, but the difference is the same - and you are claiming it's $2.50 a barrel - another blatant falsehood.

Secondly, $50/bbl to get it to market is the opex cost, not the all-in cost including admin, D&A and most importantly paying off the damn well costs which as you will remember, involved the rig falling over and a myriad of other problems. It looks like Surprise will produce less than 200 kboe at current rate of decline, which is clearly not going to pay off its costs even at $50/bbl net operating margin - much less the ~$20/bbl margin we have now.

Finally, and here is the critical point you are either unaware of (unlikely) or wilfully ignoring, opex per barrel increases as production rate decreases, so a well producing 160 bopd (and we're at 160 now Buddy, not 180) has much higher opex per barrel than a well which was forecast to produce 400 bopd. So that margin will be further squeezed, as will the discounted cashflow value of the oil, because of the time value of money.

In short, Surprise is an uneconomic well. It might have come close to paying itself off at a Tapis price of $115 but at basically zero rate of return. And it certainly will not even manage to pay itself off at these rates and these oil prices.