Thought it might be fun to have a play around with some stats, please take the following with a grain of salt!
In PVD's two well Mazagan farmout, assume a probability of a commercial oil find at Toubkal of 25%. Assume a probability of a commercial oil find at the follow up target of 20%.
Hence, probability that both wells are dusters is 0.75 x 0.8 = 0.6
Therefore, probability that any one well is successful is 1 - 0.6 = 0.4
Let's assume a successful strike at either well increases share price roughly x 10 in the short term, but dusters at both wells results in a drop of 80% in share price.
Hence, a $10k investment in PVD right now yields a 40% chance of turning that into $100k, versus a 60% chance of losing the majority to a value of $2k.
All of this ignores the fact that **on is looking quite promising based on nearby drilling this year and in the event of no success at Mazagan there is a good chance of share price recovery once the time finally comes to drill in **on.
PVD Price at posting:
30.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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