The Russian Gold Paradox, page-72

"the roots of the Ukraine crisis may lie in the faltering performance of the Russian economy…Russian growth has been sputtering—and you could argue that the Putin regime needed a distraction…No doubt its an oversimplification to say that the confrontation in Ukraine is all about shoring up an authoritarian regime that is stumbling on other fronts. But there is surely some truth to that story—and that raises some scary questions…
　
Putin is pledged to protect Russians in Eastern Ukraine, but he has given strong evidence that he aims for a federal solution in Ukraine, not a conquest and/or full independence for the East. He has not gotten any support for this either in Kiev or Washington; the latter could easily bring about a cease fire and negotiated federal solution if it desired, but it hasn’t shown any interest in doing this. Arguably, this is because Washington has Putin in a trap in which he must suffer a defeat and admission of weakness by Kiev success in its pacification effort, at heavy cost to Eastern Ukrainians, or give a military response that would possibly bring war more widely or at least further discredit him and Russia in the West as aggressors."
　
Meanwhile oil falls another dollar and half to $54 something a barrel – according to some estimates Putin needs oil at $105 in order to balance his books, the ruble falls once more to 54 to the dollar and Washington mends its relations with Cuba further isolating Putin’s ally in the Americas, Venezuela, which is on the brink of defaulting