AMI 2.70% 18.0¢ aurelia metals limited

Ann: Rights Issue Offer Document, page-4

  1. KKR
    1,212 Posts.
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    Happy 2015 folks.

    I've been contemplating the offer document that everyone I assume has received by now. The timing appears at first glance to be questionable considering where the shares were just a few months ago. As you all know, the drop in small & mid cap miners has been across the board not just AMI. My understanding is that it would have taken a EGM to have shareholders approve a resolution to issue new equity and given the required time, perhaps it was felt best to leave it until the AGM in December when we would be in production?

    The Chairman even commented at the AGM how disappointed they were with the share price. We (shareholders) were all hoping the share price would remain above $0.40 once nameplate production was achieved. Anyway it's a reasonable theory as to the timing of the issue.

    So I have been wondering why raise $10 million which not a lot of money? Over the last 12 months AMI have had enormous success at Hera and immediate surrounds. The mine development is under budget and ahead of schedule. $10 million is enough to do some aggressive drilling at Hera-Nymagee, produce a new JORC and signal new growth options. The Pyramid Prospect, Hera South and Hebe East comes to mind.

    I would also assume Nymagee will be given the green light once a new JORC has been issued. Of course the copper price will have an impact on any new development considering how hard copper miners have been recently hit.

    So is $0.234 per share reasonable? It is pleasing that retail shareholders have at least been given the opportunity to participate and apply for any shortfall shares. The issue is fully underwritten by Key Pacific Advisory Partners and sub-underwitten by our largest shareholder Pacific Road. I would assume that if any shares were not taken up, it would be unlikely they would be sold on the market any time soon by the underwriter. More likely to be sold to the sub-underwriter. But again I'm speculating as I have not seen the full Underwriting Agreement.

    Once this issue is completed, where do we see the shares heading? Further south to low 20's or high teens? Or a rally that stays above the $0.234 price? The reason I ask is that we can apply for shortfall shares. But after some rights issues, we see the share price fall below the issue price. The current share price is sitting just above the offer. So is anyone that will be taking up the offer also be applying for any shortfall shares? Appreciate your thoughts and comments.

    All the best.

    KKR
 
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