Reasonable article, and I agree it may be a long drawn out affair on the downside, but I am happy to nibble at oil below 45 as I have a longer term approach. I don't see it dropping below 30 without the assistance of a significant stock market sell off.
I see a new range between 35 and 55 developing over the longer term, maybe even 25 and 50, but its all guess work, and any number of black swan events can cause volatility in the oil market,
so my view is that it is good to have at least a little exposure, because when most people agree on a price target it either doesn't get there, or overshoots to the downside even more. Whatever the case it will be interesting.
What I do like is how extreme bearish momentum is, every time oil has been this oversold during a panic, it rebounds quite nicely, so once the bottom is in, it should be a nice ride as prices stabilise once again.
Had to rebalance my assets again.
Stopped out of Bitcoin at break even.
Currently I am at 50% cash and the remainder spread among long positions in gold juniors, Russian and Chinese equities until the US markets roll over, then going to 80% cash or higher.
