I dont track accumulation , I track who is betting against the stock on any given day . Accumulation can be misrepresented by shorters who got in at a much higher price , and have little to lose by holding on to see what happens.
Daily is key if you ask me , a 2,000,000 drop on accumulation is nothing , a 2,000,000 drop on daily means people are scared to back against BDR.
Heres my opinion on BDR's accumulation . 5.15% is well down from the over 8% it was at its peak. That being said a 25m share re balance in Dec helped this and gave the clued in shorters an expected exit and payday like no other. Since then however times are changed , if you want to get particular look at all those who have shorted in Jan , against a 50%+ increase in value. This is a wipe out for most. Those 40million that are still in are facing substantial loss or significant reduction in profit if BDR track forward ( yes 101 i know) . But heres the tricky part , Van Eyck is now buying , Black Rock is under 5% and both a buyer and seller that only leaves Ameriprise as the last shorter bus out of town. Problem for the 5.15% of shorters is that when Ameriprise last sold out 12th Jan the daily short stack spiked from several days under a million to 5million on the 12th (WOW !!!!!!! - Coincidence ?) , so even though they sold 7million shares 5 million extra short positions were created , and im guessing almost immediately closed. leaving the 5.15% wondering "What the" and where o where they will all be able to squeeze out. Plus if I was a shorter and I knew there could be a takeover or dividend announcement any day , I would be starting to stress. BDR has grabbed a lot of attention lately , IMO it will be re-rated once brokers can do their recommendations on hard numbers (quarterly figures) this could see 40,000,000 new shares being chased down , ontop of the 40,000,000 shorters needing to buyback. Thats what you call a stampede. Even worse for the shorters If Ameriprise held tight , thee is no way the profit takers could fill the void and LT holders would be dining on shorters soup.
IMO if gold stayed at $1290 , Ameriprise held their position , and nothing else happened BDR would go up 30% in 30days caused by nothing more then shorters losing their grip on the cliff and being forced to buyback shares before any new comers and their shorter brethren do.
I would also strongly suggest those indicating a relationship between shorters and BDR management , actually look at the correlation between short positions and substantial shareholder reductions. I really do think BDR management are way too busy running a very profitable goldmine to be playing silly buggers with phoning up shorters. The "leaky ship" , if there is one, is probably a broker or banker - I know , shocking right!
BDR Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
