Spot Iron Ore DOWN 4.5%, page-32

From 1880-1970 (90 years) the oil price has averaged $20 (adjusted for inflation). There have only been a TWO short term (1973-6 and 2005-14) periods of high prices . The first spike was related to instability in the Middle East and the second was the China boom.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil#mediaviewer/File:Crude_oil_prices_since_1861.png

"...well $18 a barrel is possible but we would see every single private company go bust and be nationalized first."

That is pretty much the case now. Most of the major oil companies are already government owned (Saudi Armanco. Iranian National Oil, China National Oil, Pemex, Rosneft etc ) or de facto (BP, Shell, Total, Eni, Repsol etc) national oil companies.