Even at this early stage of proceedings, it is clear that Bob Carr's Government in New South Wales will be returned to power. But far from being the crushing landslide that some were predicting (particularly on the basis of opinion polls during the week), the final outcome is likely to reflect the status quo in seat numbers, and a clear increase in the Nationals presence in the the Country.
Characterising the results (@7.25pm), the following is apparent: 1) the Greens have polled strongly, capturing up to 8.5% of the primary vote (up 4.5% on 1999); 2) this has been felt strongest in the Sydney metropolitan area, but is far less apparent in the regional and rural metropolitan areas; 3) as the night wears on, the Greens primary vote is starting to slip away, and is likely to finish the night at or near to the 8.0% mark; 4) the Australian Democrats are all but a spent political force in NSW (as they are fast becoming throughout the rest of Australia, except for in South Australia); 5) so far, the Democrats primary vote is down to 0.8% (down 2.5% on 1999); 6) it is very clear that the Greens are taking votes from both the Democrats and from the ALP; 7) it is less apparent that the Greens are taking votes from the Liberals, whose primary vote is currently sitting at 23.2% (down 1.7% on 199 results); 8) One Nation has all but disappeared from the scene, down 6.2%, to tonight's tracking figure of 1.3%; 9) despite this, One Nation is still scoring a higher level of support in 2003 than are the Australian Democrats; 10) the Nationals are tracking 12% tonight, up better than 3% on 1999 results, with much of this accounted for by a return to the fold from the recent excursions with One Nation; 11) the ALP is currently tracking near to 42.6% of the vote, up 0.5% on 1999 results, although this is far less than what the Roy Morgan and NewsPoll polls (amongst others) were predicting towards week's end; and 12) in line with other emerging trends now typifying the Australian political landscape, non-aligned independents are starting to capture an ever increasing proportion of the primary vote and, currently, are tracking 11.9% (up 2.5% on 1999 results).
Overall, the results are currently suggesting the following (with 14.3% counted): ALP = 51 0 51 3 -1 Liberal Party = 18 0 18 2 +0 National Party = 11 0 11 3 +1 Greens = 0 0 0 0 +0 Australian Democrats = 0 0 0 0 +0 One Nation = 0 0 0 0 +0 Others = 3 1 4 1 +0
