They have sold 14MW so far including contracts that aren't currently billing, and this will take them to 6-8mn ebitda from jun-14 to jun-15 (meaning their EBITDA run-rate would actually be higher by Jun-15)
They have 26MW left to sell
Their cost base is fixed at $45mn excluding power recharges
What you see here is a company where costs are fixed, pricing is holding up and firming, there's no incremental cost associated with additional revenues so almost 80% of each additional dollar of revenue falls to bottom line. Say the 26MW yields somewhere between $4.5-5.5/MW, that's an additional $120mn in revenue at the lower end on which say 80% fall to bottom line. You are talking about a swing of +100mn ebitda from the current level when if they can finally fill this thing in say 4-5 years time.
This has always been the bull case for a while, but the market is laser-focussed on their sales rate (excluding large white space deals that go for a discount) which has improved to 3.4-4MW this year. The trends are pointing to continued improvement in the sales rate which brings the bull case closer to fruition
NXT Price at posting:
$2.54 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)