one month before dfs, page-53

I remain convinced there is other forces at work esp re dealings with Moz govt. Take Natural Gas. Over the past 7-8 years almost unprecedented amounts of shallow offshore gas has been discovered off N. Moz coast. Figures of 300 TRILLION cubic feet are being bandied about! this puts Moz is world's top 4.

Moz has pumped natural gas to S.Africa for over 15 yrs. Some is offshore. So it's not a new industry. Yet not a single dollar has yet to be invested in these massive discoveries. How can this be? It was because Moz is undecided re claiming a stake, size of royalties, tax regime etc etc. Plus being in the North they cannot ignore Remano. But without doubt NG is viewed as Moz 'gamechanger' re dragging country out of severe poverty.

Now whole paradigm has suddenly changed. Raw petroleum has halved in price and today BHP head talks about "There’s a sense of almost a global glut of gas and so I would be fairly modest about my long-term views on gas,” CEO Mackenzie said. Undoubtedly this turn of events has shaken Moz govt badly. At current prices the huge capital required to exploit NG is not forthcoming.... even with very favourable tax/royalty regime. grabbing a 15-20% freebie would be a final straw for energy companies who are under severe strain.

So who knows what is really happening? Nobody imo. But Mr Mkt remains optimistic and so do I. Recent reports re govt working a deal with the opposition are esp en-heartening. My hope is Govt will see the need to encourage investment rather than milk it.