I don't blame you for not wanting to average down, you are already heavily weighted in this company.
I've been looking a bit at Lloyd Miller III.
Firstly, I haven't been able to find any affiliation to Glencore or any Glencore names, so I think he is more likely to help us than hurt us if Glencore come at us. He seems to be an activist investor who targets companies that are undervalued or trading at discount to cash backing. He normally buys stakes of over 10%, mainly in US and Canadian companies and across most sectors. So he is no minerals specialist.
I just noticed on Wednesday he upped his stake in ASX listed Focus Minerals (FML) and 214 million shares were traded on Friday. Interesting to see who comes out with these. FML have about $85million in cash including about $19 million in environmental bonds and $36.25 million in standby credit of which about $17.25million has been used. I haven't done the sums properly yet, but based on Fridays close FML must be trading close or under its cash backing. I've had a little read on Focus' present position and after a bit more reading I might end up following him into this trade. Never much liked Focus in the past, but they are looking very cheap at the moment. A cash box, looking to start up gold mining at Coolgardie and Laverton again. If you believe in gold this play can work.
From what I've read, Lloyd will use his power (if he can) to intervene in a company's affairs if he doesn't like what the directors are doing or if there are proposals that come along that he doesn't like. He is very much aimed at restoring shareholder value in the undervalued companies in which he invests. He will take seats on boards but doesn't do the management.
I've found a recent example of his activism from 3 Feb 2015. I haven't studied this in any detail but there seems to have been a recent take over made for a company called JPS Industries, Inc (I think it trades over the counter in the OTC PINK market) by Steel Partners Holdings L.P., one of JPS's large stockholders. The offer was made at $7 then later revised to $8 and then to $10 per share. The company values itself at $13. Lloyd has owned his stock in JPS since 1997 and he is now backing the existing CEO against a proposal that wants to put a group of Steel Partner nominees in as director to control the board. He seems to be happy to sell but at the right price.
I need to go back and look at how some of his interventions have panned out for shareholders in past scenarios before I'll sing his praises, but so far from what I've read he is no threat to us. He is more likely to get the value up in a take over scenario.
IMO with the world economy where it's at, the copper price where it's at, and Glencore as players in our story with their foot on our throats at the moment, to get 50cents in 5 years you will need to be very lucky. IMO we would probably need to have found funding for Kitumba before you would have any hope at 50cents, 20-35cents might be more likely on an opportunistic take over bid without funding. An offer at +35cents would help stop some bleeding from the knives you caught at about this price.
But the mess in Zambia with the government will need to resolve first and we probably would need some action on the Cu price. Any opportunist bid would probably come while Cu prices are low, probably when the big players get wind of an uptick in the Cu cycle. IAU is not completely without risk. Cu price...Cu price....world economy...world economy.....are the two biggest in the shorter term.
IMHO DYOR
Eshmun
IAU Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)