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abdm

5,330 Posts.

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26/03/15

18:56

Post #: 14987673
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Originally posted by born2reign ↑

I'll reply paragraph per paragraph to make it easier to follow:

If the share price reaches $1.00 in 4-5 years like many of us think it will, based on fairly low costs, increasing revenues with a considerably high profit margin, then that would represent a 1200% increase on today's price. You say "so many other stocks will do better in a few months" <------ really? Think before posting silly claims please......10 years is a bloody long time, nobody can really make any accurate claims about what is going to happen

RE: BodyGuard, agreed - it's a binary outcome (obviously?) Yes there is a chance, they will decline to pursue BodyGuard any further. Waiting for the deal to happen with BodyGuard would be safer, sure - but that is simply waiting for a 100% confirmation and the smart money would have already moved. There's nothing wrong with waiting for certainty, but the profits will be considerably lower (as well as the risk being lower). The terms and conditions will most certainly be mostly confidential, but that is just the way things are in these types of deals. Your last sentence in this paragraph is the silly thing here paraphrased as I've interpreted as "because the terms and conditions of the successful bodyguard deal with P&G will be confidential, the share price will go up and straight back down again" <--- How does this make any sense? If you're going off last year's example to found your claim of the share price doubling after the P&G announcement and then plateauing around 8c for a year, then I remind you that first the share price doubled, it reached a high of 13c (more than triple!), before stabilizing around 8c (still double). It is extremely unlikely that the share price will ever go back down to where it was before a successful P&G/OBJ bodyguard agreement (unless P&G were to later pull out of the deal or OBJ ran into major legal/financial issues).

RE the list of negatives, I'm not too sure about vague? The only thing I've found vague in the past 6 months was the comment about the SKII Wave II in one of their announcements (wasn't sure if this was a new product or whether they were talking about the 2nd product under the original P&G agreement - like the 2nd wave). Apart from that, everything else is pretty crystal clear to me. They can't mention product names and full details of launches before the partner gives the all clear (and probably just before or after official launch), as to not lose any competitive advantage. Again, that is just how it works in these types of deal in global markets, it is hardly OBJ management's fault.

I think what you are trying to say is that things aren't moving along quick enough for you and you'd prefer an announcement every month for comfort and I can relate to that, but working for a global pharmaceutical company myself, I know it can take the best part of decade to get an idea into a something selling on the shelves with all of the financial hurdles and regulatory/patent approvals that are required. There is simply no getting around that it's going to be a slow process to get off the ground. We have a rough draft timeline of approx 6 months for P&G/OBJ to launch the first product, we are fortunate that we are working with existing products and not brand new ones here as we can knock out one every 6-12 months as opposed to 5 years+. So I argue that "long timeframes" are not a "negative" of OBJ, but a simple reality of the industry, it's not something we can do half-arsed, we have to get it right from a legal, OH&S and a developing positive relationship with P&G perspective. One of your other negatives is "competitors"... please tell me a listed and traded company that has no competitors and while you are at it, let me know just one of these "so many companies" who will surely outperform OBJ over 10 years, in just a few months.

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Hi born2reign,

The only thing I've found vague in the past 6 months was the comment about the SKII Wave II in one of their announcements (wasn't sure if this was a new product or whether they were talking about the 2nd product under the original P&G agreement - like the 2nd wave).

Expand

That reference to SK-II 'Wave' II was ambiguous - not uncommon for OBJ while dealing with trade secrets and working to a high level of secrecy, however I assume that it may infer SK-II 'Phase' II product developments as OBJ have been working with SK-II for a number of years on their whole product development strategy - whether it may have been a simple spelling error or otherwise is quite irrelevant, imo.

What I can confirm after seeking clarification from the Company is that the 'forthcoming' next generation of SK-II innovations incorporating OBJ technology are not related to work plans #2 and #3 which involve at least 3 other global leadership brands from P&G.

On 30/09/2014 OBJ referred to the first of the three work plans as the SK-II work plan...

On 28/11/2014 OBJ released a copy of the AGM Presentation slides which informed share holders that the SK-II Phase II product developments were well advanced...

On 15/12/2014 OBJ advised that, The Company is actively working with SK-II and P&G on the next generation of products utilizing OBJ technology...

On 03/02/2015 OBJ released a Company Presentation which formed part of its 'non-deal' road shows - (ie, no capital raising required) - Development programs now advancing for the next generation of SK-II innovations based on OBJ technology...

On the next page of the same Company Presentation it also stated, "SK-II Wave II development now well advanced"

On the 23/02/2015 in the Company's Half Year revenue report to 31/12/2014 the market were advised, "To have P&G select their most prestigious brand to launch the first OBJ products...

Additional posts worth revising:

smac on 23/02/2015

jasetheace40 on 01/03/2015

OBJ Price at posting: 7.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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