Cmon. allowing for the difference in production our estimate numbers are close overall but some difference in the makeup which for interest I tried to reconcile. If correct I worked out:
- your total income is $3.6m whereas mine is $2.9m with difference being , higher volume $335k, hedging $332k and price $31k.
- your total expense is $3.6m whereas mine is $2.95 with difference being higher volume $257k, lower LOE $290k and I had some G&A savings $78k which was a guess based on the wording in the ann's.
On the LOE expense I used $21/boe which was based on the $29/boe advice less the change of royalty/taxes due to lower price (ie ($70 - $45) x (24%+7%) which reduced the $29 by $8/boe. My crosscheck was the estimate production costs in Dec Qtrly ($981k plus royalty & taxes on the revenue in qtr which gave roughly $23/boe (using my volume) but I picked the smaller number so as not to be too negative and I think a nil result or slightly better is a good qtr outcome considering the January prodn and sets up for a better June qtr. My hedging calc was based on $47 to be conservative.
Your numbers are realistic imo but I think the March production is a stretch and if achieved would be a good result. The timing of receipts and payments will most probably be out with the quarterly cash flow numbers as I think some are likely to be carried into June qtr via the a/c receivable and payables in the balance sheet.
Have a safe and enjoyable Easter all
Cheers
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