Hey Beachshack,
Correct me if I am wrong. As best I can tell, according to the latest 3B, there are two tranches of shares in escrow as follows:
15,132,520 shares escrowed until 15 October 2015
40,886,230 shares escrowed until 15 October 2016
You seem to be suggesting that when the first tranche come out of escrow on 15 October this year there will be some associated cataclysm in the SP as the holders dump their shares on-market, take the money and run - yes?
Following are the stats for volume/SP action since October last year.
October
Vol: 19.19 million SP +18.75%
November
Vol: 17.42 Million. SP +119.74%
December
Vol:13.05 million. SP +41.52%
January
Vol: 10.92 Million. SP -10.17%
February
Vol: 7.54 million. SP +14.62%
March
Vol: 22.42 million. SP +72.84%
Waiting on April....however. fact is, in six months trading only one month saw negative SP action on volume of 10.92 million.
Worst case scenario - the entire 15 million escrowed shares MIGHT come onto market either in one hit or in a controlled dribble. But to what effect? Ten per cent drop? I can live with it.
Seems to me you are scaremongering. Unless of course the 3B is fabricated and there are many millions more shares in escrow that we don't know about.
Unlikely, IMO.
Especially when you talk about October as the so-called pivot, while admitting that "this stock will fly until escrow."
So, seven months of high- flying, then we hit break-even and perhaps - pure speculation because we don't know holder's intentions - some escrowed shares hit the market. But at what price, and to what effect on the SP when, on your own suggestion - due to the stock flying from here on in - we will be talking about elevated price levels from where we are now?
Actually, I would speculate that if the stock flies from now until October, as you say, and we then hit break-even, the SP will fly even higher. At which point, who gives a damn if a few escrowed shares hit the market? I'm sure there will be more than enough buyers hungry to soak them up on the basis of the break-even - business model proved - with better to come.
And in the event there is a negative impact on the SP, it will only be temporary.
Why?
Because the bulk of the shares - 40 million - don't come out of escrow until October 2016, demonstrating that the powers-that-be are more than happy to wait while anticipating much higher gains from which to benefit.
