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Observations from Singapore, page-54

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abdm

5,330 Posts.

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15/04/15

10:20

Post #: 15089471
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Originally posted by hopeful2 ↑

goldenx

Thank you for your considered response to my posts. I can assure you that I have no desire to see people fail/lose money. Neither am I "warning" anyone. The fact is that I get very frustrated with the constant ramping by those who think that OBJ is awaiting a rerating. I have read the same announcements and the same posts and yet, whilst I feel that OBJ has a promising future, it has a long way to go before it delivers on its "promise". It has made a start but I have realistic expectations about the SKII deal and other potential deals. I also feel that innovation needs to be introduced speedily and efficiently in order to make the biggest impact. This does not seem to be happening despite Glynn's claim that the one PDA to date was executed in record time. I suppose in that respect dealing with the "world's largest" companies can be a double-edged sword. OBJ seem to have no control over the implementation (time or method) of their technology - or about what they can report. Having said that, if it all goes to plan then...great!

What I want to hear from other posters is how they can justify their confidence in the numbers being thrown around here, and for them to address all the other concerns I have voiced, given the lack of clear communication from management - even if all goes to plan. All the dot-joinings and creative research conclusions presented by some posters are very entertaining but fail to convince a hackneyed old cynic like me. I find it mystifying that people can be so confident based on so little information.

I'm afraid that I am often guilty of overreacting to the derogatory and personal responses to the concerns I voice on HC. However, misrepresenting my posts, alluding to other stocks I might or might not hold and false accusations require some response from me ( I am not accusing you of this goldenx).

I am grateful to those posters who have responded to my doubts by producing "their" calculations. However, I have yet to encounter any numbers that have not been presented from a very biased perspective and the outcomes have therefore lacked any semblance of reality. Some people insist on making calculations on "best case" senarios IMO. Of course, such positive predictions are exactly what the OBJ faithful wish to hear and so they receive multiple TUs. I am not surprised that my conservative, objective calculations are not well received. Even Baker Young's predictions were deemed pessimistic by the more gung-ho posters, despite it being common knowledge that figures presented brokers employed by a company are almost always hugely overestimated when viewed with the benefit of hindsight.

It is now a year on from the P&G announcement and yet we are still reduced to making speculative calculations about OBJ's true value. Of course there will not be consensus but we can be objective and realistic.

cmk1969,

My apologies for the six years!

" So let me get this straight - you bought low and appeared to be an OBJ Advocate and then sold for a profit and now appear tono longer be an advocate. How am I going so far?"

Well, let me set you straight. I was critical of the unreasonable rise in OBJ's SP here on HC long before I divested my holdings. Naturally, I was happy when the SP got to 6.5cents but expressed my concerns that it was overblown. But I held on, expecting an earth-shattering announcement. By the time it got to 10.5-11c (post P&G ann) my concerns turned to actions and I sold out, unhappy with the growing registry and the disastrous CR we had all endured. Perhaps I should have held out for the 13.5c it subsequently attained. I have been very clear about my doubts, whether I was holding shares or not. That's called consistency and honesty. Thanks for your concern but I am very comfortable looking in the mirror. There is no nefarious intent or malice in my posts.

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Hi hopeful2,

I also feel that innovation needs to be introduced speedily and efficiently in order to make the biggest impact. This does not seem to be happening despite Glyn's claim that the one PDA to date was executed in record time.

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Innovation introduced 'speedily' is something that I would probably associate more with risk averse incremental changes - the 20th century survival model our nation has become so reliant on to the point where there's no interest in thinking about plan B (breakthrough) when Plan A (mining boom) still appears to be working..

Incremental innovation operates within a more immediate time frame, while breakthrough innovation is more often defined by major technological advances that usually require quite a significant investment in time and capital.

Also, I believe the 'claim' you credited to Glyn's name was made by SK-II's Global Franchise Director, and on revision I think you may find that Dr. Sudarsana wasn't specifically referring to the SK-II Magnetic Eye Care Wand which has already been developed and launched into the market, but rather the next generation of SK-II products coming down the line...

In the very dynamic skin care category, it is critical that we (SK‐II) innovate at the speed of fashion. Working with OBJ has allowed us to leverage its expertise in diamagnetic physics which, in combination with P&G's biology and chemistry expertise, is resulting in record development speed in a key strategic growth area of beauty. ~ Dr. Suda Sudarsana, SK‐II Global Franchise Director

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Whether holding OBJ or not there is a lot that can still be gained by simply observing how the world's most successful marketing Company plays to win. Strategy execution.

OBJ Price at posting: 7.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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