Further thoughts on Celgene deal, page-43

Madamswer - I enjoyed reading your posts.

Well - I bought some as a trade - however my view is that MSB has been noticed by a giant, and there is a lot of option value in that, compared to what there was before we knew Celgene had shown any interest. So have the odds of a collaboration with Celgene gone from 1% to 30%??? (pick your own numbers). Has the time value of MSB gone up due to a longer period of sustaining cash (and therefore the time to finish some research and strike a further deal)? I would say yes - by 6 months. Have the odds of MSB specifically getting a take over offer by Celgene gone up? I would say yes, maybe from 1% to 25% (pick a number). Against this there is the dilution of SH equity to weigh up.

I think you would have to say that MSB is arguably worth more than prior to the deal's announcement. Just a matter of option value and weighing up probabilities. How much more is MSB worth- well - that is a hard one.

Game theory would also suggest that when one toddler takes an obvious interest in a particular abandoned toy, then many more toddlers will too, due to some sort of validation occuring.

cheers