sell or hold???, page-15

Yes Geogenow and Alpha have forecast a possible LHG price of around $1. This sort of forecasting is pure speculation, ie: like picking a number on the roulette table. Yes LHG could fall to $1, but for this to happen the POG, HUI and XAU will have to break their current 26 month up trend channels. LHG as I have said previously has been moving in the same direction, point for point with the HUI. At some stage there may be a de-linking of the two, but until this happens all are in a long term uptrend. LHG did fall back to this magic $1.02 that has been predicted whilst rising in the current up trend. It has not broken this trend for 26 months! That does not mean that it may not do so in the future, but to predict a price of $1 when the predictions were made, when in a strong up trend and without taking into consideration of whether the stock is moving in line with a broader index is ludicrous. When a stock starts acting differently to a broader index, these type of predictions can be made with a bit more confidence, but to make this sort of prediction without reference to the broader index when a strong linkage is apparent is an incorrect use of technical analysis and is why a lot of people call the techo's, tea leaf readers.

Having said this, I would be exiting all positions if the above indexes pierced their respective up trend lines by 3%.

Cheers,

Phillw