Re: SSH. I feel that this is going to continue to be painfully slow.
I feel that, based off how many people are dying (and all cause mortality usually an end point for a trial) we're unlikely succeed in Interim Analysis unless they can get the device in less sick people.
When everyone is dying it will be much harder to hit a 'very strict' P value on end points like what would be required for the interim analysis.
Even if the Interim Analysis fails, you can see there is definitely a space in the market for an EABP device, it just will probably never be C-pulse 1, but C-Pulse 2. So, so long as C-Pulse gets approval (eventually as I feel it's 100% likely to do) all we need is the FDA to allow for a small safety trial to prove that C-Pulse 2 is safe. The FDA shouldn't require a full phase 3 trial as the effect on the aorta will be the same between the 2 devices.. Therefore if C-Pulse 1 is medically effective, C-Pulse 2 is automatically proven to be too.
As such, I see the HUGE commercialisation coming in like 2018/2019. With very few C-Pulse 1's sold but hundred into thousands of C-Pulse 2's being sold. I think we'll go 1-2 billion plusaround that time. As long as we're sub 100 million shares on issue at that stage, we'll end up 10-20 dollars US minimum....
If the potential takes us to 3-4 billion... And we only have 50 million on issue, we're looking at 60-80 USD by 2019-2020.
Either way I feel that C-Pulse still has good potential but requires a lot of patience. I've gone from being like 50% of my portfolio in SSH down to about 10%... So it's still a big investment but no longer a 'make or break' for me.
The dilution risk keeps me at this size. Say this is still at 4-6 dollars in a year and a half, C-Pulse 2 is at first in man, C-Pulse 1 continues to have no exit-site infection and continues to prove its efficacy in Germany, I may up my investment 3 to 5 to 10 fold then.
Until then, patience is a virtue.
SHC Price at posting:
2.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
