No there is no correlation between preferred PM and election win but when selecting a new leader one that rates well with voters can give a party a big advantage.
The party with the better 2pp polling will always win, thats the problem the LNP have.
Polling has indicated that LNP would be a head with the polls with reversed Turnbull as leader and that it would be neck and neck with Bishop as leader.
Turnbull's Staffer drugs and indecency. Oh Dear., page-46
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