gold production to rise 66% (round 4 of take over)

In the take over announcement document to the ASX, AGD say
"Production from Augusta is expected to average about 60,000 tonnes of ore for the first three years for annual production of 35,000 ounces of gold and 3,600 tonnes of antimony contained in concentrates." I assume this is because the “average E Lode grade is estimated at 58 g/t Au and 18% Sb with an average width of 297 mm”

This represents a proposed increase in production of gold by 66% and antimony by 9% from the figures given to the Victorian Gold Conference in 2005. The increased production rates have not been mentioned elsewhere to my knowledge?

With gold at $858 AUD, gold revenue becomes $30M Aud (35,000 oz production) and 3600t Antimony @ $6914 Aud/tonne (30/04/06) = $24.891m Aud.

This now gives a projected gross revenue of $54.9m, up 58.9% from the $34.53M that we were looking at 3 weeks ago. EPS is then 41.9c/share up from 26.4c.

The take over offer looks positively pitiful when these figures are taken into account. I think their baseline offer would have to be 59% up on the 43c they were so proud of in the take over, offer making it 68.3c /share or around 11 AGD for 2 Cambrian as a minimum offer, with a realistic offer being 4 for one.

The directors should do some sums and inform the share holders of the real worth of the operation. This calculation also does not include the assets that Cambrian sold to AGD 2 months ago and will be getting back if the take over offer succeeds.

7% of share holders (9.2 million shares) can be pretty ornery :)