Greetings Dazed,
Tks for the Stray Reflections link, which worked fine.
Sorry to be a bit downbeat on it, but it's written in that conversational style typical of "complimentary" material in general. I didn't see anything in it which addresses the U.S. Debt situation or the ability of the U.S. Legislators to put in place measures Set the country on a path to surpluses to bring it down.
In general I see its optimism at odds with the direction of economic data.
"Japan Inc." will survive. It's manufactured products are first class, now with improved competitiveness. It hasn't dismantled its manufacturing sector like the U.S. has, although it has off shored a lot I concede.
I don't see the same caveats as you do regarding China. It's massive foreign surplus puts it in a class of its own.
The China-Russia nexus is all important. IMO it has the power to draw Europe closer to it. The massive continent of Eurasia, too large (expensive) for the US to effectively encircle militarily, is The worst nightmare for the U.S.
I'm in my sixties and plenty old enough to remember the Cold War, and it's plain to me that the US is regressing into repeating that period of manic confrontation.
China could blow the Western economies out of existence today if they wanted to by a massive dumping of US treasuries, but that would be counterproductive economically for them, and could lead to war.
They will reveal their gold holdings to coincide with the IMF review later this year, and that will be a big enough "black swan" for the western world to handle anyway. That will propel China and the Renminbi into influence in the IMF, and then it will be "business as usual" accumulating more precious metals and strengthening the place of the Renminbi towards becoming the international trading currency of preference. Hopefully without a shot fired..
When Russia starts moving its gas to China, it will have profound effect on many nations, including Australia. Europe will also have to adjust its alliances if it's not to endure very cold Winters once again.
I fail to see any economic downside for the China-Russia alliance within BRICS.
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