probabilities for sitting duck, page-4

You had it correct in the first posting.

Probability = N(Ln(q/spot) / Vt)

where Vt = v*sqrt(t)

Not P = N *nl ((q/spot)/(v *SQRT t))

Using your example

P = N [ (Ln {12/11.48} / 0.0876109)]

P = N [0.5056478]

P = probability of being above $12.00 at the date specified.

Probability of being above is 1- Probability of being below, so Probabilty of being above is approx 0.306 or approx 31%, and the chance of NCP being below 12.00 in two weeks is approx 59% given your parameters.

So Probability of being above in 2 weeks is 31%
and Probability of being below in 2 weeks is 59%

Having said all this I prefer the probability at anytime between now and two weeks, but then thats even heavier on the maths!.

Hope this helps.