Should be 81c (at least), page-18

Hi Josh

Nice post, very entertaining - good luck with your bet!

Having said that, as a betting man you should, I would have thought, be interested in the odds. The main points of my post were as follows:

1. My analysis, taking into account the price of oil, does not indicate that the PVD share price is particularly discounted compared with FAR at the same stage.

2. That if a company quotes say a 20% POS (gCOS) for a well with 1 billion barrel potential it does not mean there is a 20% chance of finding 1 billion barrels, especially for a well with multiple independent horizons. It means they have assessed a 20% chance of there being at least some hydrocarbons in the well - the chance the well being "full to the brim of its potential" is a lot lot less.

To this I would add:

3. That we have learnt from the FAR experience that any value attributed by broker analysts to any oil discovered is unlikely to be any where near matched by the market.

pj