We can all Win- 11/6 at 19.20 post, or we can all loose as well., page-41

Wales,

I am not sure why you have mentioned BAO Steel as I thought it was Shandong Iron and Steel that was party to off-take arrangement. Unless you are referring to BAO Steel for a different reason but even so they are off courting FMG and the API Project. To add another dimension to this powerplay Shandong Steel & Iron must be nervous about its own domestic competitor, BAO Steel, and its current sniffing around the same region with discussions with FMG and the API project through another ASX listed junior (AJX). That puts BAO Steel potentially in a heady position of being both north and south of Shandong Steel's position with RTA Todd etc...so they will not upset anything that puts their possible ore off-take arrangement at risk, even if it means pushing the boundaries of ensuring the vote goes "yes".

There are some other things to consider about that one.
1. Todd hold the majority of RTA and RTA has first dibs for the Balla Balla JV port development.
2. The only two other sea ports of close or even practical proximity are south being Dampier or Cape Lambert for RIO and north being Port Hedland that is wrapped up in BHP and Fortesque.
3. Todd Corporation's capital flexibility in Australia extends to about $1.1bn for a single transaction under current FIRB rules. any Chinese interest is limited to about $250m until the current proposed changes are approved. Even this would allow the Chinese interest to make an on-market offer for FMS shares but I doubt they would do this whilst the off-take is in play, maybe up to 5% via a 3rd party to stay under the radar - who knows.
4. Todd hold about 20% of FMS already and may well acquire more if they thought BAO was about to jump them. Oh gee what a good idea, get the bargaining "on-market" but wait a minute how would BAO get it out of the country given the current transport and port situation.
5. FMS Board could, with shareholder consent, reject the current offer and then do an open market tender for its ore or actively seek t/o offers or something else that might appeal to all parties.

There are some preceding steps before any of the above could occur and those preceding steps are in play as we speak.

Cheers.