roc up 50c hdr down 1c, page-10

Just in regard to ROC going up 60c today - does anyone else think that maybe they've got a little bit carried away here?

I'm not trying to downramp ROC, but they've just added A$130m to their market cap, based on what is essentially only around a 30mmbbl recoverable discovery at best. ROC's 40% stake will reduce to 20% when CNOOC take up their 51% stake, leaving ROC with only 6mmbbls net.

The market therefore values this discovery at US$16/bbl based only on the results of the exploration well.

If Mputa/Waraga firms up something like 300mmbbls recoverable to Hardman and it was reflected in our shareprice at US$16/bbl then we'd rise $4.59 to almost $7.

How likely is it that this will happen? I'll tell you this much - we won't last long at $2.30. We'll either be re-rated to a fair price or be taken over in an instant.