This is a good thread with some live examples of “funny activity”
I agree with @Goneflying 's original post that one must their decisions based on facts rather than psychological misconceived notions of others. I also agree that games are being played. Goneflying has clearly explained what news is due in time to come. Others like @earlyrise and @toohug01 have also mentioned upcoming news several times in recent times. So people really shouldn’t be asking what news is due.
I’ve explained my own points few days back on my views on whether or not manipulation has taken place and like I said, I too have always had my doubts.
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-notice-under-section-708a-5.2537330/page-11?post_id=15500125
In light of recent ASIC investigation of potential manipulation of SYR shares in the past, of course talks of manipulation of TON shares are very relevant and I really wonder why anyone will attempt to downplay it.
I’m not so sure that TON shares are just being manipulated to push lower for buying. I think the goal seemed to appear to really strangle TON and prevent a successful capital raising like I explained earlier in that other thread
I can’t remember what the good news was but there was something last November too where the price spiked from something like 30 c to 60 c and then crashed to around 37 c on the same day. Then again of course, everyone remembers April’s jump to 71 c and then crash back to the 30s within days.
The aim appears to hammer price to such a level that a trend is created that TON must be sold on the open if there is any good news. I accept that “buy the rumour and sell the fact” is a common trading strategy but it
does not happen like this on any other stock where good news is consistently sold down almost within days and brought back to levels even before the good news. The problem is then this trend becomes a self fulfilling prophecy where on future good news, there would again be repeated sell offs and even by regular traders.
Live examples were given in today’s thread of buying a certain amount of shares and then selling half a cent lower. Kudos to those who kept a close eye.
Also as @Rat1973 correctly mentioned here and again some days back, there are many ways to skin a cat and selling at a loss here and gaining on a competing graphite share is 1 way to make a profit and/or manipulate.
All of us are seeing how half cent or 1 cent is being knocked off each day for the past several days. Meanwhile some other graphite shares are going up on no news. The timing is brilliant if indeed someone was manipulating TON.
It creates a psychological impact on weak hands who will throw in the towel, start blaming TON management, blame others who provide valuable info as upramers and maybe shift ship to other graphite shares themselves.
Stop losses can also be hit with some holders forced to inadvertently sell, instos might also wait on the sidelines, genuine buyers might also be waiting for the “perfect” buying price (which never comes), etc.
So you see it then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and impossible to figure out genuine manipulators from simple traders/investors as the lines get blurred.
But certain things are to be paid attention to – today’s movement of buying and selling the same amount, the pattern of losing half a cent over the last few days and very importantly IMO the vicious sell off on good news which has being going on much before April. Like I said in my earlier comment, I hope TON management starts documenting all shady activity (with a view to eventually approach ASIC again) as otherwise soon, not only will it get difficult to figure out genuine manipulation from genuine trades but also management will get blamed as being inefficient, etc. when IMO their performance over the last year has been brilliant.
On a different note, I did notice some comments again on how market cap differential with SYR is not a valid point.
I once again emphasise that it is a very valid point, and for me yes, it is the main point of my FA. I’ve elaborated here
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/i-have-a-good-feeling-about-this.2532762/page-187?post_id=15490596
Peer comparison is an accepted form of FA everywhere and even by brokers and analysts. On my part I continue to do it with the highest respect to our peer. I on my part have never put down our peer to which I’m comparing and have yet to even comment on their thread. So I don’t see how the comparison can cause any animosity but just mutual respect. I’ve also seen some points that peer was zooming earlier as the graphite market dynamics were different then in prior years.
Okay, but that still does not explain the 7-8 times differential now. So no one is comparing market cap of those days but the current market cap, considering current conditions for comparable companies in the same neighbourhood.
Nothing has changed for me as far as fundamentals have concerned. A summary below for any new TONners (Old TONners please ignore as this is same one as last month)
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/price-not-reflecting-great-fundamentals.2523961/?post_id=15361253
As explained earlier, Toohug, earlyrise etc. have mentioned lots of upcoming news. This news might come in 1 day, 1 month or 5 months. No one knows when. If people feel that they can time to perfection, then more power to you.
As I’ve always said – play your own game – DT, STT, or long term and don’t get swayed by others.
I’ve always been quite happy being in the long term camp and any price manipulation will make me dig in my heels even more.
PS: Haven’t seen a comment from
@jackarooz in quite some time. Hope everything is fine with you. Just a hi from me and looking forward to your comments in time to come.
(20min delay)