But of course you need to separate opinion and fact, which you have now done.
I broadly agree with your assumptions but there are a couple of other possibilities.
Firstly, the assumption that a CDU shareholder is of sound mind is by no means a given!
Another possible alternative is that New Apex have reduced their holding. There are ~277m shares on issue, so they could sell ~2.7m without needing to file a substantial. Obviously that's less likely for COW, given they've only recently gone to 20%.
CDU Price at posting:
$1.70 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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