Ann: Operational Advisory, page-53

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acreage

3,989 Posts.

24/07/15

15:51

Post #: 15689909
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Originally posted by Rob79 ↑

Hi acreage, I like alternative views and trying to understand the context of those views is for me helpful in understanding the bigger picture. Also some of the points made are applicable to many other stocks and I find it helps avoid some or at least understand what to lookout for. I like O&G as a sector as I can understand it.

I haven't looked at Goshen, my interest ATM is Bakken and getting an understanding of the key drivers. Share price wise I have no idea, don't really care so that should be considered for anyone reading my posts.

In respect to the past expenditure I think when wells are drilled we either hit Oil/Gas or acquire knowledge, the O&G on a wildcat or new field is a bonus but the knowledge holds the value, The costs are written off but the value in Well Logs, Drilling techniques etc will save money in the long term and this IP is not all recognised in the Balance sheet of valuation.

Imo the opposite occurs as market sees a duster as a failure. Success depends on the goal of the drilling and whilst dusters are bad they are inevitable imo if the company is an explorer. To recover the investment and use the knowledge the company needs to survive and therefore that to me is the focus. To survive they need cash and I believe SSN is now in that position due to the NS facility. The cash may appear smaller because of the OP but any oiler at this time that is generating free cash has a competitive advantage.

On the decline if we use this years production as a base then to achieve 10% increase in 2016 they need to produce 293,000k boe which is an average daily rate of 804boed. Until we get a few more months production numbers we won't know but atm my guess is that with current wells on line the number is achievable.

Doug, no hassle on the chart, I learnt something and its always a good day for me if I learn something. On the chart I think had the OP not dropped so far the mood would be much different and the price effect on the results is easy to calculate.
Cheers

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Hi there Rob79,

I am not sure how much SSN is in control of it's own destiny ? Is SSN in the hands of their JV partners ? When the drill bit gets dirty ? Choke sizes ? There W/I 30% circa, in North Stockyard is somewhat out of their control also ? Just something else worth mentioning.

regards

SSN Price at posting: 0.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Ann: Operational Advisory, page-53

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