Monday closing share price tipping comp !, page-46

Anticipation that the employee share scheme would be reloaded if the votes passed? Who knows? In situations with imperfect information, going back to first principles can be helpful.

If we take the company at its word, that it needs another $55m or so to finish the plant, and that it is going to do this by debt funding, then We need to believe that the project is worth $140m before we believe the shares are worth more than zero.

If we think it's worth a punt at a buck, then you need to believe the project is worth more than $410m. If you think it's worth $2/share, that's $700m!

You'd need to believe that was the value of the project, despite no feasibility study, no commercial sales of product and an 'interim' management closely associated with the former executive chairman. Add to this a possibility that the capital will not be raised and lenders may take over the project for and we have a stock fraught with binary risk.

Personally, I see no information that would lead me to believe that CDU is worth more than the value of its debt. Until I do, I'll stay short.