HDR hardman resources limited

feedback from agm, page-20

  1. 13,971 Posts.
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    re: re hardmano mycrosoft blackscorpion 61pt8 etc Jojo,

    I won"t be topping up yet, as Uncle StG tells me I am (a touch) into my ML buffer, and I am not selling anything significant in this market. Thanks to PSA and ROC and "bad thanks" to HDR my HDR has falen below 20%, which if I buy more I will set as my limit.

    Patience: had it with COE (and it will run again), ROC (and it sat and sat while HDR soared), PSA (bought during and after the cyclones). Sure, being overweight HDR, while other picks have done well or even soared hurts.

    Look beneath the share price, and put Chinq, Tiof and Mauritania PSCs in perspective, and I believe you"ll see a growth company, with serious runs on the board over the past 6 months, and more to come:

    Chinquetti -As SP stresses the molecules are still there. So we defer producing 5+mmbo (JV) out of 123 mmbo 2P. Big deal (Note how forgiving the market is of AWE with 100% of their Bassgas liquids deferred 15months while paying hedges). 6 mths from full production, while at 60%, and at USD 70/bbl is a hell of a lot better than where we were 6 months ago, with 4 months to startup, and oil less than USD 60/bbl.

    Tiof - Oil is there, WPL just being WPL in trying to mitigate risk (and Chinq illustrates technical risks are real, Bassgas that management risks are real). We were all simply too optimistic on Tiof and declaring it a reserve when it was only a "contigent resource". What has actually happened is there has been IMMENCE PROGRESS, with WPL proposing a development which will work, and I suspect end up making Tiof a very valuable aset, regardless of a tricky subsurface. I am impressed (despite an initial cringe at the cost and initial reserves).

    Mauritania Cretaceous - Potential has been enourmously enhanced. What is that worth in the sp?

    Uganda - Perhaps soon worth a third or more of current HDR value, 50% of what is looking like a major new oil play. 6 months ago it was only a blue sky byline.

    Tanzania - Fully replaces where Uganda was 6 months ago, effectively bringing the full Uganda value from woe to go in 6 months.

    Suriname - SP has something bigger up his sleave IMO.

    Falklands - Presumably moved forward somewhat

    Guyane - Finally close to action, only 1 month from farmout.

    Forward program looks more exciting and DIVERSE, and the organisation looks stronger, Potter looks better proven as the man for the job.

    What company has been doing better? Who has better acreage? AWE has nearly the same capitalisation, ditto BPT and ROC added together, yet contrast the acreage HDR has, and IMO SP has been doing a lot to work it much harder. Drilling success in Mauritania OK (still finding oil), drilling in Uganda EXCELLENT.

    I readily accept I picked the market wrong on this one, and failed to forsee WPL sell off, Avenants circus, Chinq teething problems. But nor did I forsee oil another USD 10 higher, Uganda success, new acreage, Cretaceous sucess etc etc.

    I am hanging on tight,
    Entropylord
 
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