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bruceyg

35,101 Posts.

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05/08/15

07:35

Post #: 15751478
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Originally posted by david25 ↑

It appears most of china's GDP is inflation caused by forward trade contracts which have yet to expire.
I come to this conclusion because the China GDP and currency is strong considering the low commodity prices.
It really doesn't make any sense. China GDP should be falling but instead manufacture is making huge losses. I can only put this down to bad trade practice which mean the GDP his hidden in trade losses. and debt.

In other words the lower GDP is hidden with huge debt which in effect lifts China GDP. China probably has unfavorable trading terms created by the GFC and inflation when the US deflated.

This looks like a double edged sword. 1. China GDP falling after prices re set which will be reflected in growth figures.
2, China Debt at 250% of GDP heading over 300% and some.
3. Money Printing resulting in unstable markets and lower GDP.

It's like a foreign exchange trap. Printing money could create inflation and
more debt on the other hand doing nothing ,a serious recession.

When the US printed money it lost 40% of its value against little Australia. Mind you the US only has 60% debt of GDP. What will China look like when they start printing considering their debt is 5 times worst than the US.

Interesting to see what gold will do.

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as china invented paper money im pretty sure they know what will happen hence their huge gold stash

Price at posting: 6.2104 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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