Hi everyone. The below analysis may be of interest to all especially those shareholders who are "long LNG".
The source data is the various substantial holdings & issued capital releases over the past year or so. This is public info.
The summary is Valinor appear to have an average of approx $1.65 a share.
They have 46.9m shares which is $77.3m of their capital at risk (so not the current LNG share price but their capital).
This low average has been made possible by approximately 50% of their holdings being acquired at under 80c a share. What has also helped is they have made some strong sales then bought again in the dips. Nice work.
I do not believe they participated in the recent $178m capital raising as I can not see the change in shares.
The summary of Baupost is they have an average of $2.47 per share
They have 52.8m shares which is $113m of their capital at risk (so not the current LNG share price but their capital).
Interestingly the way they seem to trade is come on line and but material parcels in a short period of time (generally three day intense period).
I do not believe they have been selling into the spikes just consistently building their positions.
I do not believe they participated in the recent $178m capital raising as I can not see the change in shares.
Hope this stirs the mental juices!
cheers
Detailed data below.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 0 BAUPOST 1 Shares Purchase price per share ($) Investment ($) 2 5,750,000 0.55 3,162,500 3 1,000,000 0.80 800,000 4 2,937,769 0.97 2,849,636 5 850,000 1.32 1,122,000 6 3,000,000 1.32 3,960,000 7 2,000,000 1.41 2,820,000 8 500,000 1.40 700,000 9 2,462,231 1.53 3,767,213 10 800,000 1.62 1,296,000 11 3,750,000 1.24 4,650,000 12 2,850,000 1.32 3,762,000 13 Total as of 12 June 2014 - initial substantial holding notice 25,900,000 0.90 28,889,349 14 Issued shares- 18 June 2014 8,400,000 0.55 53,816,199 15 On Market purchases 16 June 2014 172,452 1.69 291,444 16 Total as of 2 July 2014 34,472,452 2.41 82,996,992 17 On Market purchases 3 July 2014 4,000,000 2.3 9,200,000 18 On Market purchases 30 July 2014 2,212,454 2.6 5,752,380 19 Total as of 31 July 2014 40,684,906 2.41 97,949,372 20 On Market purchases 5 Aug 2014 1,200,000 3.46 4,152,000 21 On Market purchases 6 Aug 2014 500,000 3.33 1,665,000 22 On Market purchases 7 Aug 2014 300,000 3.45 1,035,000 23 On Market purchases 9 Oct 2014 570,000 2.46 1,402,200 24 On Market purchases 9 Oct 2014 2,000,000 2.83 5,660,000 25 On Market purchases 10 Oct 2014 1,275,000 2.77 3,531,750 26 Total as of mid Oct 2014 46,529,906 2.48 115,395,322 27 On Market purchases 14 Oct 2014 533,831 2.89 1,542,772 28 On Market purchases 15 Oct 2014 417,268 2.88 1,201,732 29 On Market purchases 15 Oct 2014 31,169 2.82 87,897 30 On Market purchases 16 Oct 2014 318,638 2.85 908,118 31 On Market purchases 17 Oct 2014 548,456 3.0 1,645,368 32 On Market purchases 21 Oct 2014 40,795 2.99 121,977 33 On Market purchases 23 Oct 2014 7,627 3.0 22,881 34 On Market purchases 24 Oct 2014 9,515 3.0 28,545 35 On Market purchases 28 Oct 2014 1,200 2.99 3,588 36 On Market purchases 02 dec 2014 45,474 2.49 113,230 37 On Market purchases 9 dec 2014 104,344 2.49 259,817 38 On Market purchases 10 dec 2014 550,000 2.49 1,369,500 39 On Market purchases 11 dec 2014 1,185,176 2.24 2,654,794 40 On Market purchases 11 dec 2014 836,648 1.96 1,639,830 41 On Market purchases 8 Jan 2015 121,439 2.0 242,878 42 On Market purchases 8 Jan 2015 1,500,000 2.0 3,000,000 43 Total 12 Jan 2015 52,781,486 2.47 130,238,249 44 Did not participate in Bearhead early capital works ($178m) at $4.35 as share holdings did not change 45 46 LNG shares issued 503,100,000 47 Baupost holdings as per substantial holding notices 52,781,486 48 Average share price ($) 2.47
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 0 Valinor 1 Shares Purchase price per share ($) Investment 2 6,500,000 0.55 3,575,000 3 157,309 0.94 147,949 4 219,905 0.91 199,278 5 130,859 0.92 120,600 6 420,055 0.96 404,097 7 1,709,884 1.07 1,832,312 8 1,362,481 1.21 1,644,378 9 1,414,070 1.31 1,857,240 10 307,840 1.34 414,014 11 2,665,000 1.53 4,065,458 12 2,015,080 1.58 3,176,774 13 2,120,207 1.22 2,594,709 14 309,793 1.31 405,643 15 3,356,277 2.17 7,275,737 16 1,290,369 2.26 2,915,976 17 Total as of June 18 2014 23,979,129 0.78 30,629,164 18 On Market purchases 7,633,790.00 1.52 11,571,784.00 19 Total as of 23 June 2014 31,612,919 1.334927 42,200,948 20 On Market purchases 24/6 to 2/12 12,949,519 3.03 39,237,043 21 On Market disposal 15/8-22/9 - 6,087,564 4.13 - 25,141,639 22 Total as of 4 december 2014 38,474,874 1.46 56,296,351 23 On Market purchases 24/12 to 20 Feb 5,245,469 2.78 14,586,643 24 Total as of 20 Feb 2015 43,720,343 1.62 70,882,994 25 26 27 On Market disposal 21/2 to 28/5 - 3,688,588 4.64 - 17,096,764 28 Total as of 01 June 2015 40,031,755 1.34 53,786,230 29 On Market purchases 4/6 to 10/8 6,870,770 3.42 23,492,843 30 46,902,525 1.65 77,279,073 31 LNG shares issued 503,100,000 32 Valinor holdings as per substantial holding notices 46,902,525 33 Average share price ($) 1.65
