Trim,
I agree with your opinion re: oil price and effect on cap raising. I am also of the belief that is why we are seeing the current pressure on the SP. I posted a week or so ago that I reckon the management will raise cash to fully fund for the first three wells as well as a buffer. I don't agree with the "roll the dice" idea of hoping for good outcomes for the two appraisals and raising off the back of those results. If we have less than speccy results on SNE2/3, then raising cash for the E well will be bloody difficult. Better to have the cash to see out the first 3 well program and if results not as good as hoped for, then we're still in the game at this point and can then re-appraise the data set and then make rational decisions on whether to stay in the JV rather than be in a stressed situation and possibly default under the JOA.
Therefore I reckon that BP will tap the market again shortly and hence this is why we're seeing a depressed SP rather than it all being due to the OP, general market malaise etc. I'm really confident that the JV is only just beginning to scratch the surface as has already been alluded to, so would prefer for them to play it safe at this early juncture in the journey and raise more cash before spud.
Jimbo
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